Polls Show Eisenkot's Bloc Ahead but Neither Side Near a Majority, Nine Days Out

Two new polls released ahead of Israel's October 27 election show Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party opening a substantial lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, though neither of the country's two broad political blocs is projected to reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government, according to a report by The Times of Israel.

A Zman Yisrael survey of 500 respondents, conducted October 14-15 with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, put the anti-Netanyahu bloc at 54 Knesset seats against 49 for the pro-Netanyahu camp. Yashar led all parties with 26 seats, up from 24 the previous week, while Likud held steady at 20. Smaller parties ranged from B'Yachad's 11 seats down to the Reservists' 4, with the Arab-led Joint List and Ra'am together holding 13 seats that could prove decisive in coalition talks.

A separate Channel 13 poll of 1,018 respondents, with a 3.1-point margin of error, was slightly more favorable to Netanyahu's camp, putting it one seat ahead at 51 to 50, with Yashar at 20 seats and Likud at 18.

Both surveys point to the same underlying problem for Israel's political class: months of polling have consistently shown a deadlock between the blocs, raising the likelihood of another round of difficult coalition negotiations, or another election, regardless of how October 27 turns out.